SYRIA’S SEARCH FOR PEACE AND LONGING FOR HISTORY
Active Forces in Syria
Turkey, Russia, the US and Iran. Countries that actively maintain power in Syria. In addition, the murderer Israel frequently strikes Syria and takes part in the conflicts.
One of the most important elements of the Syrian opposition is the “Free Syrian Army” (FSA), now known as the “Syrian National Army” (SMO). These armed groups operate in “secure areas” under Turkish control in northern Syria.
In addition, there is a region east of the Euphrates under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), whose backbone is the YPG/PYD, an extension of the terrorist organization PKK. This administration is under the auspices of the US.
There is also Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which is outside the FSA/SMO umbrella under Turkish control and is considered a terrorist organization by the UNSC, and controls the field in Idlib, neighboring Hatay.
Aleppo from the Syrian Civil War
The Syrian civil war began in March 2011. The turning point of the civil war, which went through various stages, occurred in Aleppo, a large part of which was under the control of the armed opposition. The Assad army, with the support of Russia and Iran, laid siege to Aleppo. The resistance in Aleppo ended in December 2016 when the opposition accepted defeat.
The armed opposition’s withdrawal from Aleppo was completed on December 22, 2016. This development was generally interpreted as the end of the civil war in favor of the Assad regime.
Aleppo Became the Center of Conflict Again.
Aleppo was quickly captured with the “Deterrence of Aggression” operation launched by some opposition groups led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) on November 27. Now, Hama, located south of Idlib, has been captured. This new situation will undoubtedly affect all of Syria and all actors in Syria, including Turkey.
Assad’s Wrong Policies Continue.
The fact that opposition groups took control of Aleppo after 7 years has caused Assad to lose a great deal of ground. The perception that Assad had taken control of Syria to a great extent has been dealt a heavy blow by these events.
The Syrian army’s failure to show any resistance and its serious disintegration on the ground has clearly revealed the weakness in Assad’s military power. Moreover, the war waged by their most important supporter, Russia, by occupying Ukraine, and the decline of their other supporter, Iran, against Israel, including Hezbollah’s defeat in Lebanon, have also put Assad in a difficult position in terms of external support.
Of course, what is happening brings the following question to mind: How will a regime army that cannot even protect Aleppo ensure the security of this region in a scenario where Turkey withdraws from the north?
If Assad had responded positively to the calls from President Erdoğan and initiated a normalization process, even if limited, with Ankara, it is very likely that these developments would not be taking place in Syria today. And Assad’s helplessness would not have been so clearly revealed.
A development in this direction could have deterred HTS from launching an attack against Assad so that it would not confront Turkey.
How will the emerging geopolitical picture affect Turkey’s position?
Ankara’s most important concern is the disruption of the calm in Idlib, where a large number of internal migrants live, as seen in yesterday’s Foreign Ministry statement.
In any case, it seems inevitable that the latest crisis that is spreading will invite high-level political dialogue between Turkey and Russia at some point. A critical question that needs to be closely monitored in this process is whether Turkey’s expectations regarding Manbij will also be a complementary point of this negotiation. Similarly, it is necessary to closely monitor developments on the ground in these regions.
The Importance of Tel Rifaat
Tel Rifaat is a very important location in geostrategic terms. Tel Rifaat is located north of Aleppo in northwestern Syria and 40 km away. Kilis is located to the north of Tel Rifat, and Afrin is located to the west. In other words, Tel Rifat is a line connecting the Euphrates Shield Operation Zone and the Olive Branch Operation Zone.
Controlling Tel Rifat means, in a sense, having a say in Aleppo.
What Will Happen in Tel Rifat and Manbij?
While everyone is turning their attention to Aleppo, it is necessary to see the developments on the ground in Tel Rifat just north of Aleppo and in Manbij to the east as elements within the same picture. YPG elements, an extension of the PKK, are active in both regions.
In the Sochi agreement reached with Erdoğan on October 22, 2019, Putin undertook to withdraw YPG elements from these two settlements, but Russia did not fulfill this commitment in practice.
Ankara is following this very closely and is very clearly expressing the elements that bother it. It is clearly stating that it will not remain a spectator to this situation.
During the YPG’s takeover of Tel Rifaat, all civilians living in the region were forced to flee. The vast majority of Tel Rifaat residents fled to the city of Azaz and settled in the Salamah camp on the Turkish border. The current population of the camp is estimated to be 150,000.
What is the PKK doing?
ASSAD REQUESTED SUPPORT FROM THE PKK/YPG
According to information received from security sources; Syrian regime forces lost the areas under their control in a very short time with the start of the opposition’s operation towards Aleppo. Following this situation, the Syrian regime requested support from the terrorist organization PKK/YPG against the opposition. The Syrian regime began to transfer the lands under its control to the PKK/YPG forces located east of the Euphrates. For this reason, many PKK/YPG members from the east of the Euphrates crossed into the Aleppo region.
THE TERROR CORRIDOR PLAN WAS IMPLEMENTED
The terrorist organization PKK/YPG, seeing the Syrian regime forces leaving the areas under their control as an opportunity, put into action a plan to create a terror corridor between Tel Rifaat and northeastern Syria.
The Syrian National Army launched Operation Freedom Dawn against the PKK/YPG’s plan to create a terror corridor between Tel Rifaat and northeastern Syria.
The Syrian National Army seized the Kuwairis Military Airport in Aleppo province during Operation Freedom Dawn, cutting off the PKK/YPG’s Tel Rifaat-Manbij logistics line.
Tel Rifaat was completely captured
As a result, the regional conjuncture developed in favor of Turkey and the Syrian opposition. Turkey had built a wall of flesh in Idlib since the Spring Shield Operation. In this respect, the opposition groups operating in this area had continued their preparations for such a conjuncture.
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